Falkenbergs FF 0-3 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasalund make the trip to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to face Falkenbergs FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.57 xG and Vasalund 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.966 / defence 1.524 | Vasalund attack 0.992 / defence 1.756. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.003. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.756 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Falkenbergs FF games / 6 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 39% | Draw 24% | Vasalund 37%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Vasalund 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 39% | Draw 24% | Vasalund 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.57 / Vasalund 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.966 / def 1.524 | Vasalund attack 0.992 / def 1.756 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Vasalund xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund?
Falkenbergs FF 0 - 3 Vasalund.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 39% chance of winning, Vasalund a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Vasalund's defensive record (1.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Vasalund's attack (0.99x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
39%
2.55
24%
4.18
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.09
1.52
Vasalund xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.52 for Vasalund, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
Vasalund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, Vasalund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2021, when Vasalund 3-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Vasalund?
Vasalund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Vasalund run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat Falkenbergs FF 0-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.57 xG and Vasalund 1.52 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Vasalund outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.52 against Vasalund attack 0.99 / defence 1.76, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 39% | Draw 24% | Vasalund 37%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Vasalund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.