Vasteras SK FK 2-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Iver Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 31 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 0.95 xG and IK brage 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.919 / defence 0.968 | IK brage attack 0.810 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.027. Data: 7 Vasteras SK FK games / 7 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 33% | IK brage 29%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | IK brage 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — IK brage's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 33% | IK brage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Vasteras SK FK 0.95 / IK brage 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.919 / def 0.968 | IK brage attack 0.810 / def 1.176 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
IK brage xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 31 May 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 37% chance of winning, IK brage a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IK brage in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.81x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.00
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
1.75
0.81
IK brage xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.81 for IK brage, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
4
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IK brage?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, IK brage have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when IK brage 3-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vasteras SK FK and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Vasteras SK FK and IK brage drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 0.95 xG and IK brage 0.81 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against IK brage attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 33% | IK brage 29%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.