Vasalund 1-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasalund and Osters IF meet at Skytteholms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 0.92 xG and Osters IF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.903 / defence 1.079 | Osters IF attack 0.917 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.047. Data: 7 Vasalund games / 7 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 31% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 37%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Osters IF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 31% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Vasalund 0.92 / Osters IF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 0.903 / def 1.079 | Osters IF attack 0.917 / def 1.169 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Osters IF xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Osters IF kick off?
Vasalund vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Osters IF?
Vasalund 1 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Vasalund vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Osters IF part of?
Vasalund vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 31% chance of winning, Osters IF a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vasalund and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and Osters IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vasalund's attack at 0.90x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.92x) against Vasalund's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.21
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Vasalund xG
Total xG
1.96
1.04
Osters IF xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.04 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vasalund
0
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Osters IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 1, Osters IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2021, when Osters IF 3-2 Vasalund.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Vasalund defy the odds to beat Osters IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat Osters IF 1-0 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 0.92 xG and Osters IF 1.04 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Osters IF attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 31% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 37%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vasalund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.