Trelleborg 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.03 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.984 / defence 1.137 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.719 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.032. Data: 6 Trelleborg games / 6 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 32% | Vasteras SK FK 29%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Vasteras SK FK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 32% | Vasteras SK FK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Trelleborg 1.03 / Vasteras SK FK 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.984 / def 1.137 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.719 / def 1.159 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Vasteras SK FK xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Trelleborg 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 39% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.98) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.72x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.13
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.87
0.84
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.84 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 28 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 5-0 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
2
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Trelleborg.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Trelleborg 0-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.03 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.84 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 39% | Draw 32% | Vasteras SK FK 29%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.