Orgryte IS 0-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.87 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.835 / defence 1.172 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.993 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 0.945. Data: 6 Orgryte IS games / 6 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 40%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | GIF Sundsvall 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Orgryte IS 0.87 / GIF Sundsvall 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.835 / def 1.172 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.993 / def 1.137 | league avg home 0.919 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orgryte IS 0 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 28% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
28%
3.61
33%
3.06
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.87 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 40%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.