AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 6 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.38 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.056 / defence 0.951 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.775 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 0.913. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 AFC Eskilstuna games / 5 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 17%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.88. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.38 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.056 / def 0.951 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.775 / def 1.381 | league avg home 0.946 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Jonkopings Sodra xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 53% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.36
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.05
0.67
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.67 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out Jonkopings Sodra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.38 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.67 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 17%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.