Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.58 xG and Orgryte IS 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.134 / defence 1.004 | Orgryte IS attack 0.901 / defence 1.590. League average goals — home 0.877 / away 1.019. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.590 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Landskrona BoIS games / 7 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 22%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 4.55. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.58 / Orgryte IS 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.134 / def 1.004 | Orgryte IS attack 0.901 / def 1.590 | league avg home 0.877 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Orgryte IS xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 53% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.90x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.96
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.50
0.92
Orgryte IS xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.92 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
4
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.58 xG and Orgryte IS 0.92 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Orgryte IS attack 0.90 / defence 1.59, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 22%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.