Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 18 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.051 / defence 0.996 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.865 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 0.871. Data: 5 Landskrona BoIS games / 5 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 33% | Falkenbergs FF 23%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Falkenbergs FF 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 33% | Falkenbergs FF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.15 / Falkenbergs FF 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.051 / def 0.996 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.865 / def 1.191 | league avg home 0.917 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Falkenbergs FF xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 18 May 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 44% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.86x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
44%
2.27
33%
3.03
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
1.90
0.75
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.75 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 0-3 on 26 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Falkenbergs FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Falkenbergs FF 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.75 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 33% | Falkenbergs FF 23%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.