Al Shabab 3-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Shabab face Al Riyadh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Riyadh travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Shabab's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Riyadh's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Al Shabab hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al Riyadh and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2025, ended Al Shabab 3–1 Al Riyadh — a Al Shabab win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Shabab and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 59% versus Al Riyadh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 55% | Al Riyadh 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.73 xG and Al Riyadh 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.978 / defence 1.255 | Al Riyadh attack 0.797 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Al Shabab's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Riyadh's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 56 games and Al Riyadh's last 56.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.22 | Draw 4.14 | Al Riyadh 3.25. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al Shabab 1.73 / Al Riyadh 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.978 / def 1.255 | Al Riyadh attack 0.797 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Riyadh xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 23 February 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh?
Al Shabab 3 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 45% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 56 games and Al Riyadh's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.14
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.12
1.39
Al Riyadh xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.39 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 23W 13D 20L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Riyadh's form line: 13W 15D 28L from 56 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 5D 9L).
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 6W 5D 16L from their last 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.04 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.63 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
3
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Riyadh?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: Al Shabab 3-3 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Riyadh?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 86% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 67%, Al Riyadh 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al Shabab and 59% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al Riyadh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Shabab's games and 63% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Shabab and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al Shabab's matches and 59% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Riyadh 3-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.73 xG and Al Riyadh 1.39 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Al Riyadh attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 45% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 31%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 55%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.