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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.262 / defence 0.680 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.013 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.680 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 56 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Ettifaq 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ettifaq 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.

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