Al Riyadh 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Riyadh face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Riyadh welcome Al Shabab to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Al Shabab have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Shabab are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Al Shabab have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Al Riyadh.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2026, ended Al Riyadh 1–3 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al Shabab have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Shabab trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 58% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 53% | Al Shabab 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al Shabab 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.812 / defence 0.926 | Al Shabab attack 0.880 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.410. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 60 games and Al Shabab's last 60.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 34% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.97 | Draw 3.46 | Al Shabab 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 34% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.07 / Al Shabab 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.812 / def 0.926 | Al Shabab attack 0.880 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Shabab xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 34% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.81) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 60 games and Al Shabab's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.46
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.22
1.15
Al Shabab xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.15 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 14W 15D 31L from 60 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 21L across 60 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 8W 9D 13L from their last 30 home games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 14W 15D 31L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 25W 14D 21L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.10 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Shabab?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al Shabab have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: Al Shabab 3-3 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 53%, Al Shabab 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Riyadh) and 47% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Shabab in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Al Shabab matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 53% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Riyadh and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 47% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 73% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Al Riyadh and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al Shabab 1.15 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Al Shabab attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 34% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 37%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 53%, Al Shabab 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.