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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al Shabab to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.10 PPG versus Al Shabab's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al Shabab and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% versus Al Shabab 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al Shabab 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.305 / defence 0.744 | Al Shabab attack 0.867 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.412. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 61 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al Shabab 40%.

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