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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Riyadh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 6W 3D 1L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Riyadh have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 0.90 (Al Riyadh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al Riyadh 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al Riyadh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al Riyadh 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 2.29 xG and Al Riyadh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.127 / defence 0.957 | Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.422. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Al-Ettifaq games / 61 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 66% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Al Riyadh 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Riyadh 60% BTTS from recent games.

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