Al Riyadh 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Riyadh welcome Al Khaleej Saihat to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:55 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Riyadh at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Riyadh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Riyadh, 2 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Al Riyadh 1–4 Al Khaleej Saihat — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 59% and Al Khaleej Saihat 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al Khaleej Saihat 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.31 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.713 / defence 1.043 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.146 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.346. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Riyadh's projected output up. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 54 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 54.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.23 | Draw 4.01 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.31 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.713 / def 1.043 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.146 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 13:55 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 31% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.71) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 54 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
31%
3.23
25%
4.01
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.92
1.61
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.12
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.61 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh come into this having played 54 games, going 12W 14D 28L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (17W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 0.93 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Riyadh's home form reads 7W 8D 12L across their last 27 home games, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.46 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 63%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.07 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2025, when Al Khaleej Saihat won Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 Al Riyadh.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Riyadh at 52%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Al Riyadh and 78% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Riyadh's games and 82% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al Riyadh's matches and 78% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 78% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat finished level at 1-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.31 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.71 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.15 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al Khaleej Saihat 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.93 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.