Al Riyadh 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Riyadh have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 3 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2025, ended Al Riyadh 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Riyadh surrender their half-time lead 64% of the time, while Al-Ahli Jeddah have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.62 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.706 / defence 0.993 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.061 / defence 0.591. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.389. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.591, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Riyadh's projected output down. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 57 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 15% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 6.74 | Draw 3.54 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% (last 10 away games).

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