Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al Shabab to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.10 PPG versus Al Shabab's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al Shabab 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Dec 2025, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–2 Al Shabab — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% versus Al Shabab 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al Shabab 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.305 / defence 0.744 | Al Shabab attack 0.867 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.412. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.305 — their 1.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling Al Shabab's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 62 games and Al Shabab's last 61.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.76 | Draw 4.21 | Al Shabab 5.17. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 / Al Shabab 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.305 / def 0.744 | Al Shabab attack 0.867 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Shabab xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 57% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 62 games and Al Shabab's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.21
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.91
Al Shabab xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
29.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.91 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 38W 12D 11L from 61 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 21L across 61 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 21W 7D 2L from their last 30 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.62 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 38W 12D 11L in their last 61 games (2.07 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 13 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Shabab have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 August 2026: Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%, Al Shabab 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 47% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Shabab in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 57% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 47% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 77% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 0.91 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.74 against Al Shabab attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.