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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 8 April 2026, 16:55 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Al-Fayha.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Ahli Jeddah have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 43% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.879 / defence 0.908 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.088 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.409. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Al-Fayha games / 61 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.

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