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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Damac welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Damac's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Damac's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Damac have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Damac trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 51% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.23 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.790 / defence 0.892 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.428. Damac's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Damac games / 61 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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