Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 17:10 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Hazm, 1.10 for Al Riyadh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Riyadh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Hazm 1W, Al Riyadh 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 61% and Al Riyadh 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 61% | Al Riyadh 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.80 xG and Al Riyadh 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.917 / defence 1.200 | Al Riyadh attack 0.882 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.390. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Al-Hazm games / 62 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al Riyadh 3.12. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 80% | Al Riyadh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Hazm 1.80 / Al Riyadh 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.917 / def 1.200 | Al Riyadh attack 0.882 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al Riyadh xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:10 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Hazm 2 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 46% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 2 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.88x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
46%
2.20
23%
4.38
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.27
1.47
Al Riyadh xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.47 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 9W 7D 12L from 28 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 15L across 28 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.82 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.04 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Riyadh in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al Riyadh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 5W 8D 15L in their last 28 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 64%, Al Riyadh 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Hazm and 64% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Riyadh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Hazm's games and 64% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Hazm's matches and 64% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Al Riyadh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Riyadh 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.80 xG and Al Riyadh 1.47 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Al Riyadh attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 32%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 61%, Al Riyadh 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.21 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.