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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 21 February 2025 at 15:10 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 0D 2L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al Okhdood 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 xG and Al Okhdood 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.923 / defence 0.862 | Al Okhdood attack 0.946 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.373. Data: 20 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 54 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 3.57. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 22% | Al Okhdood 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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