Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 21 February 2025 at 15:10 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 0D 2L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al Okhdood 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 xG and Al Okhdood 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.923 / defence 0.862 | Al Okhdood attack 0.946 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.373. Data: 20 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 54 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 3.57. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 22% | Al Okhdood 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 / Al Okhdood 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.923 / def 0.862 | Al Okhdood attack 0.946 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Okhdood xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:10 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.95x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.93
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.12
Al Okhdood xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.12 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 20 games, going 14W 2D 4L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 7W 0D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.05 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 14W 2D 4L in their last 20 games (2.20 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 2-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 22%, Al Okhdood 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 56% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 56% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 56% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 xG and Al Okhdood 1.12 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Al Okhdood attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 28%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Okhdood 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.