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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.57 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.307 / defence 0.864 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.126 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.388. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 21 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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