🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Damac (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Damac.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Damac at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 13 February 2025 at 14:10 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Damac away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Damac have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al Okhdood's 0 victories.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Damac winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Damac have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Damac in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Damac 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 55% | Damac 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Damac 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.725 / defence 1.129 | Damac attack 0.951 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.336. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al Okhdood games / 53 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Damac 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 50% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights