Al-Ittihad FC 4-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 65% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.500 / defence 0.957 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.411 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.372. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.500 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Al-Ittihad FC games / 54 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.94. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ittihad FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.500 / def 0.957 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.411 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.50x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.41x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
45%
2.21
21%
4.87
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.99
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.39
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.85 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 33W 7D 14L from 54 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 46W 6D 2L across 54 games — 2.67 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 19W 2D 6L from 27 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 21W 4D 2L across 27 trips, a 2.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.98 scored and 0.80 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 33W 7D 14L in their last 54 games (1.96 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 6D 2L in their last 54 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Al-Ittihad FC, 63% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Ittihad FC and 78% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 63% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 78% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 68%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.96. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.