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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 14:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Okhdood have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Al-Fateh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.10 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Okhdood 1W, Al-Fateh 1W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 4–2 with Al Okhdood winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 47% and Al-Fateh 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 53% | Al-Fateh 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.43 xG and Al-Fateh 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.682 / defence 1.016 | Al-Fateh attack 0.754 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.364. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Al Okhdood games / 55 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 3.57. Al Okhdood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Okhdood at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Fateh 40% BTTS from recent games.

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