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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Awwal Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 3D 1L at Al-Awwal Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Nassr register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Nassr winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Nassr trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 68% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 76% | Al-Ettifaq 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / defence 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.361. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Nassr games / 54 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.

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