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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 38%, yet in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 13 February 2025 at 15:25 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Shabab winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al Shabab trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 63% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 63% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.36 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.208 / defence 0.968 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.042 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.323. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Al Shabab games / 19 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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