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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Match Analysis

Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 14:20 UTC.

Form Guide

Damac — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 4W 4D 2L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Damac, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Damac in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 59% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.055 / defence 1.069 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.007 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.368. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Damac games / 54 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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