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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Fateh Club Stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 2D 5L at Al Fateh Club Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 road games this term (2.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 9 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.11 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2.20 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.70 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fateh lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 65% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.903 / defence 1.159 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.339. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Al-Fateh games / 17 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% BTTS from recent games.

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