Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (83%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Okhdood face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 2.30 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Al-Nassr, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Al Okhdood 0–3 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Nassr have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Al-Nassr 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 51% | Al-Nassr 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.77 xG and Al-Nassr 3.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / defence 1.382 | Al-Nassr attack 1.599 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.419. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Al-Nassr bring a tight defence (rating 0.685, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.599, which lifts their away xG to 3.14. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Nassr's projected output up. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 61 games and Al-Nassr's last 61.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 6% | Draw 11% | Al-Nassr 83%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 17.12 | Draw 9.32 | Al-Nassr 1.20. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (83%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.90 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 6% | Draw 11% | Al-Nassr 83% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al Okhdood 0.77 / Al-Nassr 3.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / def 1.382 | Al-Nassr attack 1.599 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
3.14
Al-Nassr xG
51%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Al Okhdood 0 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 6% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 83% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.60x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 3.14.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 61 games and Al-Nassr's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-3 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 0-4 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
6%
17.12
11%
9.32
83%
1.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 4
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.90
3.14
Al-Nassr xG
17.12
6%
Home win
9.32
11%
Draw
1.20
83%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
4%
23.03
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
0%
–
39%
2.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 3.14 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 13W 11D 37L from 61 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 43W 8D 10L across 61 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 6W 7D 18L from their last 31 home games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 22W 3D 6L across their last 31 away games, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.52 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 11D 37L in their last 61 games (0.82 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 43W 8D 10L in their last 61 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.81 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won Al Okhdood 0-9 Al-Nassr on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 55%, Al-Nassr 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Okhdood and 77% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 39%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Okhdood's games and 61% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Okhdood's matches and 77% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 81% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 0-2 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.77 xG and Al-Nassr 3.14 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 1.38 against Al-Nassr attack 1.60 / defence 0.69, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 6% | Draw 11% | Al-Nassr 83%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 51%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.