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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al-Fateh 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.546 / defence 0.687 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.411. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.546 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 64 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Fateh 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.

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