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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 17:05 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Fayha 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Fayha trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 63% versus Al-Fayha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 63% | Al-Fayha 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.53 xG and Al-Fayha 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.884 / defence 1.307 | Al-Fayha attack 0.969 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.434. Data: 27 Al-Hazm games / 62 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 33% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fayha 2.22. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 90% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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