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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Raed.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Raed to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Al-Raed, with 1 draws in between.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Raed winning.

The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 60% versus Al-Raed 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Al-Raed 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.364 / defence 0.788 | Al-Raed attack 0.976 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.455. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Al-Ittihad FC games / 48 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Raed 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Raed 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Raed 40% BTTS from recent games.

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