🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ittihad FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Al-Ittihad FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 57% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / defence 1.058 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.116 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.479. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Al-Fayha games / 47 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 18% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights