Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood meet at Al-Awwal Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al-Awwal Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Nassr lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 66% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 74% | Al Okhdood 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al Okhdood 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.092 / defence 0.793 | Al Okhdood attack 1.016 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.366. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al-Nassr games / 47 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 3.85. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Nassr 1.61 / Al Okhdood 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.092 / def 0.793 | Al Okhdood attack 1.016 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Okhdood xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 9 January 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 2W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.09x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (1.02x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.04
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.71
1.10
Al Okhdood xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.10 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 33W 8D 6L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 12W 9D 26L from 47 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.22 PPG from 23 outings (15W 6D 2L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.66 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.04 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 33W 8D 6L in their last 47 games (2.28 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 12W 9D 26L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.22 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-9 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 70%, Al Okhdood 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Nassr) and 48% (Al Okhdood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Nassr's games and 48% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Nassr's matches and 48% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 3-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al Okhdood 1.10 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Al Okhdood attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 26%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 74%, Al Okhdood 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.