Al Najma 1-3 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Najma at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Najma face Al Okhdood.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Najma welcome Al Okhdood to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Najma have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Najma's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Najma at 0.60 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Najma, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Al Najma 1–2 Al Okhdood — a Al Okhdood win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Najma trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Okhdood trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 65% and Al Okhdood 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 65% | Al Okhdood 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.834 / defence 1.421 | Al Okhdood attack 0.635 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Najma's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Al Najma's defence rating of 1.421 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Data: built from Al Najma's last 23 games and Al Okhdood's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al Najma 42% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 2.35 | Draw 3.72 | Al Okhdood 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Najma at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Najma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Najma's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Najma 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).

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