Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 64% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 67% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.64 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.236 / defence 0.901 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.385 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.377. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.385, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 52 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.78 | Draw 4.01 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.64 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.236 / def 0.901 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.385 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 36% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 52 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
36%
2.78
25%
4.01
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.36
1.72
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.72 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 11D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.08 PPG from 52 outings (33W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across their last 25 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.72 points per game from their last 25 away games (13W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.85 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 33W 9D 10L in their last 52 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 60% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 72% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.64 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 67%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.