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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates NEOM at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs NEOM encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al Okhdood and NEOM meet at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City than their overall form suggests.

NEOM (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEOM's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On a straight form reading, NEOM are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEOM in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Okhdood 0W, NEOM 1W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with NEOM winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

NEOM — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus NEOM 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | NEOM 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and NEOM 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.803 / defence 1.056 | NEOM attack 0.907 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.407. Data: 52 Al Okhdood games / 18 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 27% | NEOM 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | NEOM 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, NEOM are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEOM if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | NEOM 75% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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