🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha's home record at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 3 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 41% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 43% | Al Khaleej Saihat 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.43 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.751 / defence 0.962 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.145 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.443. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Al-Fayha games / 51 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights