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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fateh have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Hazm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's away record: 3W 4D 2L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.40 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Hazm in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Hazm 2W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).

Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 56% | Al-Hazm 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.240 / defence 1.217 | Al-Hazm attack 0.875 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.426. Data: 52 Al-Fateh games / 18 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 3.45. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Hazm 67% BTTS from recent games.

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