🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Taawon (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.70 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Taawon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Taawon, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Al Taawon winning.

It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 60% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al Taawon 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG and Al Taawon 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / defence 1.013 | Al Taawon attack 1.114 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.377. Data: 52 Al-Ettifaq games / 52 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.13. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights