Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 54%, yet in-form Al-Hazm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Hazm to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hazm away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hazm — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 0 for Al-Hazm and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2025, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 4–1 Al-Hazm — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 67% and Al-Hazm 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 62% | Al-Hazm 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Khaleej Saihat surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al-Hazm have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.75 xG and Al-Hazm 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.034 / defence 0.962 | Al-Hazm attack 0.732 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.403. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 58 games and Al-Hazm's last 24.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.84 | Draw 3.96 | Al-Hazm 4.94. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hazm (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.75 / Al-Hazm 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.034 / def 0.962 | Al-Hazm attack 0.732 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Hazm xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Al Khaleej Saihat 2 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 54% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 58 games and Al-Hazm's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.96
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.74
0.99
Al-Hazm xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
28.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.99 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 6D 11L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.12 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across their last 11 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 11 away games (3W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 62%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Khaleej Saihat have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2025, when Al Khaleej Saihat won Al-Hazm 1-4 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 4-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 36%, Al-Hazm 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 64% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 46% of games; Al-Hazm in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 54% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 64% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 73% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al-Hazm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.75 xG and Al-Hazm 0.99 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 20%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.