Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Ittihad FC at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Ittihad FC, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Al-Fayha — Al-Fayha have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Al-Ittihad FC 1–1 Al-Fayha — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Ittihad FC an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 63% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Al-Fayha 44%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Al-Ittihad FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 xG and Al-Fayha 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.865 / defence 0.787 | Al-Fayha attack 0.746 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.344. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Al-Ittihad FC have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Al-Fayha's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 54 games and Al-Fayha's last 54.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 | Draw 4.01 | Al-Fayha 5.78. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 / Al-Fayha 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.865 / def 0.787 | Al-Fayha attack 0.746 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 58% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.75x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 54 games and Al-Fayha's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.01
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
30.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.79 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 36W 9D 9L from 54 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 23L across 54 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 22W 1D 4L from their last 27 home games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.91 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 9D 9L in their last 54 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 23L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Fayha on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 0D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al-Fayha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 59% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 44% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 59% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 78% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 xG and Al-Fayha 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 57%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.