Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al-Fayha.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Al-Fayha 1–2 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Nassr have won 7 of 9 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Nassr 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Nassr 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Nassr 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.932 / defence 0.915 | Al-Nassr attack 1.456 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al-Nassr bring a tight defence (rating 0.751, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Fayha's projected output down. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.456, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 57 games and Al-Nassr's last 57.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.91 | Draw 4.14 | Al-Nassr 1.80. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.04 / Al-Nassr 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.932 / def 0.915 | Al-Nassr attack 1.456 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Al-Nassr xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 20% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 57 games and Al-Nassr's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
20%
4.91
24%
4.14
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.89
1.85
Al-Nassr xG
4.91
20%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
3%
31.08
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.85 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 18D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 39W 8D 10L from 57 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 11D 8L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 19W 3D 6L from their last 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.46 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 15W 18D 24L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 39W 8D 10L in their last 57 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.36 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 39%, Al-Nassr 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Fayha) and 75% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 39%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 61% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 75% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 79% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Nassr 1.85 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Al-Nassr attack 1.46 / defence 0.75, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.