Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Al-Ettifaq.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Ettifaq away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq edge it 4 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Al-Fayha 2–3 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Ettifaq 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Ettifaq 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Ettifaq have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.78 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.923 / defence 0.977 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.875 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 59 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.02 | Draw 4.02 | Al-Ettifaq 3.92. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 away games).

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