Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Fateh face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better record in our head-to-head data — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Al-Fateh.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Al-Fateh 1–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 70% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fateh surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 73% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.002 / defence 1.149 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.582 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.432. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.582, which lifts their away xG to 2.60. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 59 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 59.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 5.47 | Draw 5.50 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.57. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.38 / 2.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Al-Fateh 1.38 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.002 / def 1.149 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.582 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
2.60
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC FAQs
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 18% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 64% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 2.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fateh's last 59 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 1-3 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
18%
5.47
18%
5.50
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.98
2.60
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.47
18%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
7%
13.48
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
1%
73.69
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 2.60 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 13D 28L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.31 PPG from 59 outings (41W 13D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 11W 6D 12L across their last 29 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.14 points per game from their last 29 away games (18W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.73 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh (Home) vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 41W 13D 5L in their last 59 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.34 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the most recent 7 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 9-0 Al-Fateh.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
9
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 83%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Al-Fateh and 69% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al-Fateh's games and 69% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Al-Fateh's matches and 69% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 93% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.