Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Al Taawon.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon meet at EGO Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 15:15 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Ettifaq's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al Taawon (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al Taawon's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.30 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Al Taawon edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Taawon — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 49% versus Al Taawon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 46% | Al Taawon 38%). Note also that Al Taawon surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.87 xG and Al Taawon 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.867 / defence 1.294 | Al Taawon attack 0.788 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.385. Al Taawon bring a tight defence (rating 0.663, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Ettifaq's projected output down. Al Taawon's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 55 games and Al Taawon's last 55.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 23% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.30 | Draw 3.68 | Al Taawon 2.02. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 20% (last 10 away games).

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