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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Full Analysis

Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 4W 2D 4L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.60 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 5 meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al Khaleej Saihat's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 54% and Al-Ittihad FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Ittihad FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.947 / defence 0.987 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.363. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 55 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.13. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.

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