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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Al Fateh Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh Club Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 1.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Taawon 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 73% versus Al Taawon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al Taawon 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.87 xG and Al Taawon 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.838 / defence 1.022 | Al Taawon attack 0.703 / defence 0.681. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.352. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.681 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Al-Fateh games / 56 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Al Taawon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 90% | Al Taawon 10%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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