Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Al Fateh Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh Club Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 1.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al Taawon 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 73% versus Al Taawon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.87 xG and Al Taawon 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.838 / defence 1.022 | Al Taawon attack 0.703 / defence 0.681. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.352. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.681 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Al-Fateh games / 56 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Al Taawon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 90% | Al Taawon 10%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Fateh 0.87 / Al Taawon 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.838 / def 1.022 | Al Taawon attack 0.703 / def 0.681 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al Taawon xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 31% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.84x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.09
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
1.84
0.97
Al Taawon xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.97 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 13D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.55 PPG from 56 outings (23W 18D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 9W 8D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.43 points per game from 28 outings (10W 10D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 23W 18D 15L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 71%, Al Taawon 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Fateh) and 29% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 39%; Al Taawon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Fateh's games and 39% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 29% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.87 xG and Al Taawon 0.97 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against Al Taawon attack 0.70 / defence 0.68, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 37%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 64%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.