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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Raed host Al-Ettifaq at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Al Raid Club Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ettifaq — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Raed winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Al-Ettifaq 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.682 / defence 1.248 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.217 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.350. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Al-Raed games / 56 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 15% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 65%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ettifaq 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.

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