🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al Shabab (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al Shabab.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Al-Raed welcome Al Shabab to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 14:10 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 1D 7L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Al Shabab have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Al-Raed's 1 victories.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.

It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 54% | Al Shabab 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.08 xG and Al Shabab 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.676 / defence 1.185 | Al Shabab attack 1.008 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.390. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Al-Raed games / 55 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 25% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al Shabab 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights